Transformational Change of Regional Landscapes: Navigating Planetary Limits and Resource Constraints Over the Next Five Decades

The project brought together a group of Australian researchers and managers with a broad range of expertise to identify current and emerging economies (‘drivers’) affecting regional agricultural landscapes and to suggest beneficial transformational changes for successful adaptation. A key challenge in these landscapes is altering how we use the land for ongoing, viable production while increasing native biodiversity. The group:<ul style="list-style-type: disc;"> <li>identified the major historical influences on Australian land use and the current social and economic drivers that are likely to increase in the future</li> <li>assessed the condition of five agro-climatic regions (adapted from Williams et al., 2002 and Hobbs and McIntyre, 2005) using a Delphi method. A small (4-person) expert panel scored the impact of historical and future scenarios on ten sustainability indicators (biodiversity, water, soil, social capital, built capital, food/fibre, carbon, energy, minerals and cultural). Five regions were chosen: Southern Mediterranean, Northern tropical, Central arid, North-east subtropical, and South-east temperate. This was an iterative process whereby scores were revisited until internal consistency between regions, scenarios, and indicators was achieved</li> <li>made projections of regional condition under the four global Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) based on van Vuuren et al. (2011)</li> <li>developed recommendations about land use and management, institutional and policy arrangements and social processes that will assist adaptation towards a values-rich vision of Australia in 2100.</li></ul>