We used a case study in an Australian wet montane forest to establish how predictive fire simulation models can be interpreted as management tools to identify potential fire refuges. We tested the ability of a topographically based fire prediction model developed by Mackey et al (2002) in the O’Shannassy and Maroondah water catchments, NE north-east of Melbourne, Australia, with fire severity data collected following a large wildfire in 2009 in the same area. We derived our fire severity data from a larger map created by the Department of Sustainability and Environment (2009), using SPOT satellite imagery and the normalised-burnt ratio. We examined the relationship between the probability of fire refuge occurrence as predicted by an existing fire refuge model and fire severity experienced during a large wildfire. We also examined the extent to which local fire severity was influenced by fire severity in the surrounding landscape. We used a combination of statistical approaches including generalised linear modelling, variogram analysis and receiver operating characteristics and area under the curve analysis (ROC AUC). We found that the amount of unburnt habitat and the factors influencing the retention and location of fire refuges varied with fire conditions. Under extreme fire conditions, the distribution of fire refuges was limited to only extremely sheltered, fire-resistant regions of the landscape. During extreme fire conditions, fire severity patterns were largely determined by stochastic factors that could not be predicted by the model. When fire conditions were moderate, physical landscape properties appeared to mediate fire severity distribution. Our study demonstrates that land managers can employ predictive landscape fire models to identify the broader climatic and spatial domain within which fire refuges are likely to be present. It is essential that within these envelopes, forest is protected from logging, roads and other developments so that the ecological processes related to the establishment and subsequent use of fire refuges are maintained. Department of Sustainability and Environment (2009) Remote sensing guideline for assessing landscape-scale fire severity in Victoria’s forest estate. Unpublished technical manual., Department of Sustainability and Environment, Melbourne. Mackey, B., D. Lindenmayer, M. Gill, M. McCarthy, and J. Lindesay. 2002. Wildlife, Fire and Future Climate: A Forest Ecosystem Analysis. CSIRO publishing, Collingwood.

This arboreal marsupial survey data package comprises spotlight surveys conducted every two years along 200 metre fixed transects at each site for 20 minutes per site. Distances along and adjacent to a transect are recorded. If animals are in a tree, tree species and animal height (distance from the ground to the animal) are also recorded. Sightings of exotic species (e.g. foxes, rabbits and pigs), as well as some non-arboreal (e.g. kangaroos) are also recorded. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest Slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

This arboreal marsupial survey data package comprises spotlight surveys conducted every two years along 200 metre fixed transects at each site for 20 minutes per site. Distances along and adjacent to a transect are recorded. If animals are in a tree, tree species and animal height (distance from the ground to the animal) are also recorded. Sightings of exotic species (e.g. foxes, rabbits and pigs), as well as some non-arboreal (e.g. kangaroos) are also recorded. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

This arboreal marsupials survey data package comprises spotlight surveys conducted every two years along 200 metre fixed transects at each site for 20 minutes per site. Distances along and adjacent to a transect are recorded. If animals are in a tree, tree species and animal height (distance from the ground to the animal) are also recorded. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

Herpetofauna is surveyed every two years using artificial substrates and active search methods. Artificial substrates comprise eight standard roofing tiles, eight half-size (cut-off) railway sleepers and four sheets of corrugated iron per site. A set of two sheets of corrugated iron placed on top of one another, four half-size railways sleepers and four roofing tiles are placed around a point at the 0 m and 100 m point of the permanent 200 m transect. These artificial substrates are gently turned over to record occupants with some of the animals hand-captured to identify the species, substrates are replaced and then the animals put carefully back underneath the substrates. Active searching is done by gently turning over any rocks, logs or fallen bark at locations along a 200 m transect for 20 minites. Several measurements including sex, age and tail condition are recorded where possible. Sightings of exotic species (e.g. rats) are also recorded. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation

The Nanangroe Plantation Plot Network Bird Point Count Data contains counts of all birds seen and heard over five minute periods at each of the 0 m, 100 m and 200 m posts along a permanent 200 m transect at each site. Dawn bird counts are conducted every 1-2 years using repeated point interval counts. Repeated point counts by two different observers on two different days are undertaken. The distance that each bird was seen/heard at is recorded along with bird abundance and any anecdotal comments (e.g. breeding behaviour). Bird species presence/absence or detection rates within 50 m of the observer is commonly used for analysis. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest Slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

This nocturnal birds survey data package comprises spotlight surveys conducted every two years along 200 metre fixed transects at each site for 20 minutes per site. Animal species and abundance are recorded. Distances along and adjacent to a transect are also recorded. If animals are up on a tree, tree species and animal height (distance from the ground to the animal) are also recorded. Nocturnal birds are also detected by the calls during spotlighting. Arboreal marsupials survey data for 2015 can be found at http://www.ltern.org.au/knb/metacat/ltern6.9/html. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

The Nanangroe Plantation Plot Network Bird Point Count Data contains counts of all birds seen and heard over five minute periods at each of the 0 m, 100 m and 200 m posts along a permanent 200m transect at each site. Dawn bird counts are conducted every 1-2 years using repeated point interval counts. Repeated point counts by two different observers on two different days are undertaken. The distance that each bird was seen/heard at is recorded along with bird abundance and any anecdotal comments (e.g. breeding behaviour). Bird species presence/absence or detection rates within 50 m of the observer is commonly used for analysis. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

This nocturnal birds survey data package comprises spotlight surveys conducted every two years along 200 metre fixed transects at each site for 20 minutes per site. Animal species and abundance are recorded. Distances along and adjacent to a transect are also recorded. If animals are up on a tree, tree species and animal height (distance from the ground to the animal) are also recorded. Nocturnal birds are also detected by the calls during spotlighting. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.

This frogs survey data package comprises spotlight surveys conducted every two years along 200 metre fixed transects at each site for 20 minutes per site. Animal species and abundance are recorded. Distances along and adjacent to a transect are also recorded. If animals are up on a tree, tree species and animal height (distance from the ground to the animal) are also recorded. The principle objective of the Nanangroe study is to directly quantify changes in woodland vertebrate assemblages and their relationships with habitat variables when the surrounding landscape matrix is converted from a semi-cleared grazing landscape to a landscape dominated by an exotic softwood plantation (Lindenmayer, DB, Cunningham, RB, MacGregor, C, Tribolet, C & Donnelly, CF 2001, ‘A prospective longitudinal study of landscape matrix effects on fauna in woodland remnants: experimental design and baseline data’, Biological Conservation, vol 101 no 2, p. 160). The study area is located in the Southwest Slopes of NSW west of Lake Burrinjuck and includes four exotic Pine Plantations (Nanangroe, Cotway, East Bungongo and Bungongo), as well as private properties adjacent those plantations. Repeated sampling of the vegetation structure and cover and selected vertebrate groups on all sites from 1998 has created a long term dataset. A synopsis of related data packages which have been collected as part of the Nanangroe Plantation Forest Plot Network’s full program is provided at http://www.ltern.org.au/index.php/ltern-plot-networks/nanangroe-plantation.